James St. Aubin Tells MarketWatch What May Happen When Fed Loosens Quantitative Tightening
The notion that the Federal Reserve will soon slow, or perhaps even end, its program of quantitative tightening is increasingly being talked about on Wall Street like a foregone conclusion. But while investors wait to hear more on the subject from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during next week’s post-meeting press conference, they could be forgiven […]
James St. Aubin Shares Important Investing Lessons on Excess Returns Podcast
The hosts of Excess returns have now conducted over 100 interviews on their podcast. At the end of all of them, they have asked the same closing question: Based on your experience in markets and your research, if you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be? In this episode, the […]
MarketWatch: In Wake of Nasdaq Losing Streak, Sierra CIO Says Investors Should Be Patient
The highflying technology stocks that drove much of the U.S. stock market’s advance in 2023 are struggling so far in 2024, with the Nasdaq capping off its longest losing streak since late 2022 on Thursday. Meanwhile, health-care stocks, utilities and energy stocks, which all finished 2023 in the red, have taken the lead this week, […]
MarketWatch Gets James St. Aubin’s Take on the “January Effect”
U.S. stocks capped off a wild 2023 with a two-month sprint that has carried the Dow to record highs and the S&P 500 index to within a whisker of a similar milestone. But after such a powerful advance, some portfolio managers and strategists are concerned that the market could suffer its own post-New Year’s Eve […]
Sierra CIO to Wall Street Journal: “Corporate Debt Markets Face the Most Acute Threat This Year”
Access to this article may require a subscription A resilient U.S. economy and cooling inflation fueled an intense year-end bond rally. Now, some suspect investors are too sanguine about the months ahead. The rally marked the latest in a series of swings that sent the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which falls when bond […]
St. Aubin to Schwab Network: “The Unknowns Need to Be Respected”
Historically, the end of monetary policy tightening cycles have been an attractive time to own bonds, notes James St. Aubin. He discusses the outlook for rate cuts in 2024. He talks about how investors should avoid getting too complacent about downside risk in the bond market. He then goes over how many rate cuts we […]
Reuters & St. Aubin: Powell’s ‘Balanced’ Outlook Invigorates Investors
The hosts of Excess returns have now conducted over 100 interviews on their podcast. At the end of all of them, they have asked the same closing question: Based on your experience in markets and your research, if you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be? In this episode, the […]
Wall Street Journal and Sierra CIO James St. Aubin Talk Tightening Financial Conditions
Access to this article may require a subscription. Many investors on Wednesday looked to the Federal Reserve for hints about whether this autumn’s unusual ascent in Treasury yields would help finish America’s inflation fight. The central bank’s message: maybe. In the tug of war between low-risk government debt and higher-risk equities, that was enough of […]
ThinkAdvisor Interviews Sierra CEO, Skip Schweiss
A fast-evolving set of risks and opportunities is challenging late-career workers, retirees and the financial advisors who serve them, and those who fail to respond to shifting conditions could see hard-earned nest eggs battered by unforgiving market forces. At the same time, financial services firms that manufacture investment funds and outsourced portfolio models are facing […]
St. Aubin in the Wall Street Journal Talks Risky Borrowers & Rising Loan Costs
Excluding a 2020 spike, the default rate for the past 12 months is the highest since 2014. The strains come at a time when leveraged-loan funds have put up outsize performances. Investors had feared that rising rates would hurt risky borrowers, particularly if they spark a recession. Instead, a strong economy has helped issuers withstand […]